By Ethan Hoffman -- Motorsports Today Contributor
With all the NASCAR silly season rumors and breaking news stories that have swirled over the past few weeks, you would think we would have already crowned a champion and phoenix and were on the fast track to the 2025 NASCAR season. In reality, we are only in the month of June with still over 15 races left for 2024.
While it may be early, I think it’s still an appropriate time to piece together each of these rumors and tidbits into a cohesive prediction for what the NASCAR Cup Series grid may look like in 2025.
(italics indicate change from 2024)
Haas Factory Team
As announced last week, a little piece of Stewart-Haas Racing will live on as a single-car team known as the “Haas Factory Team”.
Day-to-day management will be run by longtime Haas employee, Joe Custer. One would imagine Joe’s involvement with the team would give an edge to his son Cole Custer to make his return to the Cup Series.
Custer previously ran in the Cup Series with SHR from 2020-2022, scoring a single victory at Kentucky Motor Speedway.
Trackhouse Racing
#1 - Ross Chastain
#99 - Daniel Suarez
Trackhouse Racing has one of the most complex, confusing, and hard-to-piece-together off-seasons coming up. The problem for the Justin Marks and Pitbull owned cup team is rather simple, they have more drivers signed than they do race cars. Trackhouse has four drivers who are attempting to squeeze into only 3 cup series rides. The odd-man-out in this situation would either be subjected to a painfully slow Kaulig Racing car or a season in the Xfinity/Truck series.
Ross Chastain and Daniel Suarez are essentially locked to be in 2 of the Trackhouse Cup Series rides, with both having signed multi-year deals before the 2023 Daytona 500.
That leaves the third ride to be fought out through Chicago Street Course winner Shane van Gisbergen, and 2022 Truck Series champion Zane Smith.
Currently, it sounds like neither driver has a one-up on the other for the third Trackhosue entry. Gisbergen, while having won 2 Road-Course races in the Xfinity Series, has struggled to find consistent speed on NSACAR’s patented ovals. Smith hasn't exactly lit the world on fire in his lone season with Spire Motorsports either, with an average finish of 28.1 and a seeming affinity to involve himself in an incident at least once a race.
Both Gisbergen and Smith are talented drivers who can make a case for the 3rd car but I would imagine Trackhouse would give the nod to Gisbergen, seeing that it is now or never for the 35-year-old New Zealander.
Team Penske/Wood Brothers Racing
#2 - Austin Cindric
#12 - Ryan Blaney
#21 - Josh Berry
#22 - Joey Logano
No changes for the ordinary trio at Team Penske, with Austin Cindric, Ryan Blaney, and Joey Logano each retaining their rides headed into 2025. The major change at Penkse is not one technically under their name.
Since Ryan Blaney’s “departure” from the team in 2017, the Wood Brothers Racing #21 has struggled to find their franchise driver for the seat. They bounced around average drivers with Paul Menard and Matt DiBendetto, before heading into the darkest stretch for the car since its return to full-time racing.
To say Harrison Burton’s tenure at Wood Brothers was a disappointment would be an understatement. Since stepping into the car in 2022, Burton has only been able to knab 5 Top-10s in 90 starts with the team. Burton just barely scrapped by last season without being dropped, and with a performance decline so far in 2024, it seems all but certain that he will not return to the 21.
Names for possible replacements in the 21 Ride have been running rampant over social media. The favorite for the ride was Chase Briscoe, before receiving an unrefusable offer to replace Martin Truex, Jr. at Joe Gibbs Racing. The new name being circulated for the Wood Brothers ride fits their throwback aesthetic.
As it sounds, Josh Berry will move over from a defunct Stewart-Haas Racing No. 4 team to the famed Wood Brothers Racing No. 21, bringing crew chief Rodney Childers and key members of the championship-winning 4 team with him.
Richard Childress Racing
#3 - Austin Dillon
#8 - Kyle Busch
No driver changes at RCR, despite the rumors of an unhappy Kyle Busch attempting to get out of his contract to join a contending team. I feel Busch will have to wait out his last year at RCR in 2025 before making whatever move he thinks will best suit the twilight years of his career.
Hendrick Motorsports
#5 - Kyle Larson
#9 - Chase Elliott
#24 - William Byron
#48 - Alex Bowman
No changes to the Hendrick Motorsports driver line-up, each driver is locked into contracts at least until 2026. Bowman may be on the hot seat for 2025 depending on the success he has for the rest of this season.
RFK Racing
#6 - Brad Keselowski
#17 - Chris Buescher
Similar to Hendrick Motorsports, both Brad Keselowski and Chris Buescher both have contracts set through the 2025 season.
Spire Motorsports
#7 - Corey LaJoie
#71 - Michael McDowell
#77 - Carson Hocevar
The only change at Spire Motorsports will be Michael McDowell moving over from Front Row Motorsports to replace Zane Smith in the #71, in a deal that was announced in May.
LaJoie and Hocevar both signed multi-year deals heading into the 2024 season, while it’s important to mention that Hocevar is highly touted in the garage and is a candidate to jump ship to a major organization for the 2026 season.
Joe Gibbs Racing
#11 - Denny Hamlin
#19 - Chase Briscoe
#20 - Christopher Bell
#54 - Ty Gibbs
With the aforementioned retirement and replacement of Martin Truex, Jr. at Joe Gibbs Racing, it seems that the team has found its lineup for the foreseeable future. Hamlin would be the next driver to possibly replace, but retirement seems unlikely for at least another 3-4 years.
Rick Ware Racing
#15 - Cody Ware
#51 - Justin Haley
Rick Ware Racing stays the same and is even able to retain one of the hottest drivers in the garage in Justin Haley. Haley stated last week that he is running the best he has in his Cup career, and doesn't want to change the formula that is working.
There have been rumblings of Rick Ware selling the 15 charter in hopes of putting more attention in the 51, but I do not see a world where Ware would not leave a car open for his son, Cody Ware, to race in.
Kaulig Racing
#16 - Zane Smith
Just to think, about three years ago, if you were to mention the Cup Series efforts of Kaulig Racing, you would have imagined a future where they would be contending for race wins, playoff spots, and the title of NASCAR’s best young team. Life must come at you fast because Kaulig Racing is not that.
While fielding Daniel Hemric and an all-star car full-time this season, Kaulig Racing has struggled to do much of anything. The season’s highlight came with back-to-back 9th place finishes at Talladega and Dover with Hemric’s No. 31. Since then, Hemric has struggled to finish races on the lead lap, and the No. 16 car has been the first lapped car in almost every race.
At this time, it seems like Kaulig needs to make a change ASAP, with their best possibility of success being to strengthen their relationship with Trackhouse Racing. They're just in luck because Trackhouse is in a messy situation with Zane Smith, where they're going to have to find him a ride for the 2025 season.
A Smith/Kaulig/Trackhouse team-up makes the most sense on paper, after being passed over for the third Trackhouse car.
23XI Racing
#23 - Bubba Wallace
#45 - Tyler Reddick
No changes to the existing drivers of the 23XI fold, with both Bubba Wallace and Tyler Reddick, signed on for the foreseeable future.
The major changes come from what team owners Denny Hamlin and Michael Jordan will do with their brand new 3rd charter, acquired from the Stewart-Haas Racing closure. While it may seem like Corey Heim, who is set to make his debut with 23XI Racing this weekend at Nashville Superspeedway, would be the favorite to land the ride, all signs point to Riley Herbst returning to Toyota and landing the Full-Time Cup Series Ride.
To understand this move, you have to understand the economics of 23XI purchasing the charter. Despite the combined 3.4 Billion dollar net worth between Denny Hamlin and Michael Jordan, both have stated they would not purchase a 3rd charter without backing.
Heim, as unfortunate as it is, does not have the same level of backing as Herbst has. Herbst brings backing from companies like Monster Energy, SunnyD, and other Fortune 500 companies in B2B deals due to his family’s chain of “Terrible Herbst” gas stations.
Essentially, the purchase of this 3rd charter will be mostly funded by the Herbst family, in exchange for the ride going to Riley.
Front Row Motorsports
#34 - Sam Mayer
#38 - Todd Gilliland
With the closure of Stewart-Haas Racing before the 2025 season, it seems that Front Row Motorsports is in the catbird seat to take its place at Ford.
Front Row Motorsports and Bob Jenkins have the role of filling two open positions at their cup team with the departure of Michael McDowell and the purchase of a Stewart-Haas Racing charter. All signs pointed to the two replacement drivers being Noah Gragson and one of the SHR Xfinity drivers, either Cole Custer or Riley Herbst. With how the dominos fell between other rides opening up, Front Row Motorsports may grab their next drivers from an unlikely source.
Just a few weeks ago at Iowa, Sam Mayer threw shade at Cup Series teams passing over his talents for other, more funded drivers. From the way it’s sounding, Mayer may have found the team willing to take a chance on him, with a ride that is already completely funded by Love’s gas station.
A completely funded team for Sam Mayer, along with Noah Gragson and a recently re-signed Todd Gilliland could give Front Row Motorsports immediate results.
Legacy Motor Club
#42 - John Hunter Nemechek
#43 - Erik Jones
No changes for the #42 or #43 teams at Legacy Motor Club, with John Hunter Nemechek and Erik Jones both sticking around for 2025, with the addition of a new teammate.
Despite missing out on the 3rd 23XI ride, I do believe that Corey Heim is too talented to be sitting Sundays on the couch, and Heim is the perfect type of splash hire needed to get the boat moving over at Legacy Motor Club.
Gordon Smith/Brad Daughtery Team
#47 - Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
As announced in May, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. will return to the No. 47 team for 2025 and beyond. However, the owners of that team are not exactly known.
It was reported by Adam Stern of the Sports Business Journal, that JTG-Daughtery co-owners Tad and Jodi Geschickner would likely sell their portion of the team before moving into positions of leadership at Joe Gibbs Racing, bringing Kroger sponsorship with them.
Their absence at the press conference announcing Stenhouse’s extension was the first tale-tell sign that the Husband and Wife duo would not be sticking around. That leaves Gordon Smith and NBA All-Star Brad Daughtery as the sole owners of the team.
Talk around the garage in regards to the future of the 47 go anywhere from mergers to finding a third partner to replace Tad and Jodi. If I had to guess at least for the 2025 season, Gordon and Daughtery will run the team alone for the 2025 season while being open to any options for 2026.
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